Nike shares (NYSE: NKE), a company that designs, develops and markets footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories, has fallen slightly over the past month (twenty-one trading days) to levels near $160 currently. But will the company’s shares see higher levels in the coming weeks, or is a stock decline imminent? According to the Trefis machine learning engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price, returns for the average NKE stock around 2.4% then one month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 2.4% drop in the past week. But how would these numbers change if you wanted to hold NKE shares for a shorter or longer period? You can test the response and many other combinations on the Trefis machine learning engine NKE stock odds of a rise. You can see the chances of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, a month or even a single day!
In fiscal 2021 (ended May 31), Nike
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF The NKE share evolved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, NKE shares will move by one Medium of 4.0%, with a probability of a positive return of 63% over this period.
Some fun scenarios, FAQs and making sense of NKE stock moves:
Question 1: Is the average return of NKE shares higher after a decline?
To respond: Consider two situations,
Case 1: NKE stock drops -5% or more in one week
Case 2: NKE stock increases by 5% or more in one week
Is the average return of NKE shares higher in the following month after case 1 or case 2?
NKE Share fares better after case 1with an average return of 4.0% over the following month (twenty-one trading days) in case 1 (where the security has just suffered a loss of 5% over the previous week), compared to an average return of 2, 3% for case 2.
By comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next twenty-one trading days in Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2, as detailed in our chart. edge that details the average return of the S&P 500 after a decline or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how NKE stock is likely to perform after a specific gain or loss over a period of time.
Question 2: Does patience pay off?
To respond: If you buy and hold Nike stock, it is expected that over time, the short-term fluctuations will cancel each other out and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
All in all, according to data and calculations from the Trefis machine learning engine, patience absolutely pays off for most actions!
For the NKE share, the returns over the next N days after a variation of -5% over the last five trading days are detailed in the table below, as well as the returns of the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this chart looks like for NKE stocks after a bigger loss in the last week, month or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait a bit?
The average return after a rise is naturally lower than that after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has been gaining in the last few days, you’re better off avoiding short-term bets for most stocks.
Nike’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the past five trading days are detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It is powerful enough to test the trend of Nike stocks for yourself by changing the entries in the charts above.
It’s also helpful to see how your peers compare. Comparison of NKE shares with its peers shows how Nike stacks up against its peers on important metrics.